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On Monday, President George W. Bush , decided to commute the prison sentence of Vice President Dick Cheney’s former Chief of Staff I. “Scooter” Libby  based on the grounds the 30-month prison portion of his obstruction of justice conviction sentence was too harsh .Libby was free on bail while awaiting a ruling on his appeal. Earlier today, a federal appeals panel ruled it could no longer delay Libby’s prison term. 

On June 6, 2007, online sportsbook, Sportsbook.com offered betting odds that Libby would be pardoned by President Bush prior to his leaving office on January 20, 2009. Based on the odds presented, an article was published at Point-Spreads.com indicating it was their opinion, a wager predicting Libby’s potential pardon would be a good value. In the exact words, the article said it was a “Slam Dunk,” Libby would be pardoned. A yes wager carried a money line price of -120 while a No bet came with -110 juice. 

Soon after Monday’s action by the President, odds on Libby’s pardon at Sportsbook.com were removed. 

At Point-Spreads.com, we take it upon ourselves to interpret gaming decisions to enable our readership a better understanding of a wager and how it is graded. The moment President Bush commuted Scooter Libby’s sentence we knew it would raise questions regarding the exotic political prop offered by Sportsbook.com.

Monday afternoon, we contacted Sportsbook.com in order to get an opinion on how the prop in question would be graded. The customers service official at Sportsbook.com said if Libby wasn’t pardoned, the wager had until the expiration date to run its course. If President Bush were to give Libby a full pardon then the wager would pay off immediately. 

This opinion is what we suspected all along. Libby’s sentence of 30 months and a $250,000 fine was  commuted, not pardoned . Libby is still liable for the fine and any probation period required by the sentence. Libby is still a convicted felon. What the President did was commute the period of time Libby would be required to spend in a Federal Penitentiary. A pardon will expunge Libby of all wrongdoing and will in turn wipe out all record of his conviction. A pardon wipes the slate clean. This is not what happened on Monday. 

For those who wagered on the Libby prop, your bet is still good. The President still has the remaining 18 months of his second term to pardon Libby. And we think he will. It’s not a surprise to anyone that Bush relieved Libby from a prison experience. And your bet should still hold good value.

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