This year, thanks to NASCAR’s revamped points system, the Wildcard spot in the Chase is still up for grabs and the series sponsor has added an extra incentive for a visit to victory lane. Any driver who wins between Indianapolis and Bristol (the next five races) will become a finalist for the Labor Day weekend race in Atlanta. If one of those eligible drivers wins the Atlanta race, then the driver, the driver’s charity and one lucky race fan each collect $1,000,000.
Jimmie Johnson has something to prove. He does have a victory this season, is second in points and has three wins at Indy. If he’s in a position to win late in the race, Johnson will go for it. However, if he doesn’t have a winning car, look for him to protect his points position rather than risk taking a chance to win.
Stewart has admittedly struggled this season. He heads to Indy 12th in the Sprint Cup standings and without a win. But for Stewart, this weekend could be his best chance to pick up his first win, help his chances in the Wildcard chase, and get back into the hunt. Stewart has two wins at Indy and has the best driver rating among the Top 12 drivers in the standings
Jeff Gordon leads all active drivers with four wins at Indy. Like Johnson, he has visited victory lane this season and should be in a good spot for the Chase. He hasn’t shown the strength to be a favorite Sunday, but he certainly could spoil the show for Stewart and Johnson.
This week’s primetime match up pits Juan Pablo Montoya against Denny Hamlin. Neither has won at Indianapolis, but Montoya has come close. Montoya is outside the Top 12 in points and needs to race his way into a playoff spot, while Hamlin is hanging precariously inside the cutoff in 10th. While Hamlin has shown some strength lately, look for Montoya to come out ahead in this duel.
The other matchup pairs Kevin Harvick with his nemesis Kyle Busch. Harvick has won at Indy, while Kyle is still looking for a win at the Brickyard. While Busch can suddenly be a surprise contender wherever he races, Harvick has the strength of four Top-5 finishes in addition to his win, while Busch has just one. Look for Harvick to prevail in this matchup.
Favorites:
Tony Stewart +1,000
Jimmie Johnson + 600
Jeff Gordon +1,000
Bottom line: Nine of the 18 races at Indy have been won from a Top-5 starting position. The farthest back in the field anyone has won was 27th, which was Jeff Gordon in 2001.
