Online sportsbook Bodog.com is putting up some creative matchup lines for Sunday’s Allstate 400 at the Brickyard Nextel Cup race at Indianapolis International Speedway that should thrill racing gamblers and enthusiasts alike. The key to winning a matchup wager is like anything, you must find an advantage and watch out for the deception; oddsmakers are good at knowing the gamblers weakness but they can be beat.
We know that racing is racing; on the track, anything can happen at any moment to anybody regardless of how many trophies sit on their mantle. In that I mean the best driver on the circuit can blow his engine on the first lap or a racer can get caught in a pile up in the blink of an eye. Mishaps such as these are not figured into the handicapping quotient. However, with a little research one can find an edge.
Looking at the matchups for this week’s race , one in particular really caught my eye. Mark Martin vs. Dale Earnhardt Jr … who will finish ahead of the other? Junior is favored with a -150 chalk ($150 bet to win $100) over Martin whom oddsmakers give +120 juice ($100 bet to win $120).
There is not a racer out there I’d prefer to put my money on in a head to head bet than the old guy from Batesville, Arkansas, Mark Martin . While Martin has run a limited schedule driving for Ginn Racing, he has probably done the most with the least. If you remember, Martin was the leader in the Nextel points early in the season. The reason he dropped off was from his limited running schedule.
Martin and Earnhardt have gone head to head in 14 races this year with Martin enjoying a decided advantage in 10 of them. Some of the races have been close but most were not. Earnhardt will never remember 2007 as a banner year. Things got so bad for him he is changing teams away from the family business to Hendrick Motorsports in 2008.
In the 14 head to head battles between Martin and Earnhardt this year, Martin had four top five finishes and seven top ten finishes compared to one top five and three top tens for Earnhardt. Of the 14 races, Martin had an average finishing position of 11.0 compared to Earnhardt’s 19.6.
Now its time to face facts. Mark Martin has been the better driver in the 14 events he squared off with Dale Earnhardt Jr .in 2007. So why do oddsmakers favor Junior at the Brickyard on Sunday? The best way I can answer that is because the average gambler isn’t going to do the research required. And there are other factors such as name recognition. The name Dale Earnhardt is huge in racing. Even with “Junior” attached to the end, racing fans see Earnhardt and excellence as the same. But how much of that is carry-over from the memory of Dale (Sr.), a.k.a. Ironhead the Intimidator?
The name Dale Earnhardt (senior or junior) is bigger than Mark Martin but that doesn’t equate into the better racer. Martin is the better racer and you can bet on it with a clear advantage.
Remember I warned you to “watch out for the deception?” Oddsmakers know if they throw the names Earnhardt and Martin up in the air they know which one you will grab; Earnhardt of course. But you had better take Martin.
Other Matchup odds for the Allstate 400 at the Brickyard.
J.J. Yeley vs. Jamie McMurray
Yeley -115
McMurray -115
Jimmie Johnson vs. Tony Stewart
Johnson -130
Stewart (EVEN)
Juan Pablo Montoya vs. Reed Sorenson
Montoya -130
Sorenson (EVEN)
Dale Earnhardt Jr. vs. Mark Martin
Earnhardt -150
Martin +120 (featured line)
Clint Boyer vs. Dale Earnhardt Jr.
Boyer -120
Earnhardt -110
All wagers have a $500 limit and must be placed prior to the 2 p.m. ET green flag
