There’s a reason that it’s often times difficult to make money betting on NFL. It’s the most fickle league in all of sports. One year teams like the Chicago Bears make it to the Super Bowl. The next year they don’t make it to the playoffs.
One year a team like the New England Patriots is a game away from perfection. Another year they struggle to win games on the road. That’s the nature of NFL. Yes, in the Patriots’ situation, their leader and the undisputed best player in football, Tom Brady, went down with an injury. The Patriots have an excuse for how their season has unfolded so far.
But what about the San Diego Chargers who for some reason just can’t get it together? They still have LaDanian Tomlinson on their team. They still have Philip Rivers at the quarterback position. They still have Antonio Cromartie batting down passes in the defensive backfield. What’s their excuse?
Again, it’s the nature of the NFL that some teams do well against the spread sometimes but no team does well against the spread all of the time. It means that in order for sports betting fans to be successful they have to be flexible in what NFL teams they make wagers on and what wagers they make. The key is timing.
Just like Peyton Manning getting the ball to Dallas Clark down the middle of the field right before the strong safety makes a break for it, successful NFL bettors have to have a knack for knowing when to pull the trigger on a team and when not to. That’s easier said than done, of course, but there is a way to do it. It’s called trend betting and simply put it’s the only real way to make money in the long run betting on the NFL. It’s a simple idea that has been around for as long as football betting has been around.
What is it? It’s paying close attention to historical trends and having the ability to take those historical trends and put them into the context of the present game.
In order to illustrate how trend betting really works, let’s take a look at one game that has been played in the NFL. We will discuss some of the trends associated with that game and then put them into the context of the two teams that played that day. We will then take a look at the outcome.
On October 26th, the San Diego Chargers played the New Orleans Saints at Wembley Stadium, in London, England. Both teams were coming off terrible losses. Each team had been beaten on the road the week before by a team that many football betting fans thought they should beat. The Saints, in particular, had looked devastated after learning that their best offensive player, Reggie Bush, a running back that had accounted for 60% of their offensive output during the season, would be out for up to a month.
The Chargers let a win slip from their grasps in Buffalo. They made mistake after mistake and eventually it cost them the game.
Here were the betting lines for this game.
Chargers vs. Saints – - Against the Spread – - Saints + 3
Chargers vs. Saints – - Over/Under Total – - 46 ½
Now, let’s take a look at some of the trends associated with this game. After we do that, we will go ahead and assess the trends based on the reality of both teams going into this game.
The San Diego Chargers were 6 and 1 against the spread versus a team with a losing record.
The New Orleans Saints were 5 and 1 against the spread following an against the spread loss.
Let’s take a look at the first trend above. Okay, so the Chargers do well against the spread when they face teams with losing records. The first thing that NFL bettors have to think about is this: there are losing records and then there are losing records. The Kansas City Chiefs and the Oakland Raiders, two teams in the Chargers’ division that they regularly beat up on have losing records. The Raiders are 2 and 5 on the season. Kansas City is 1 and 6. What were the New Orleans Saints going into their London game against the Chargers? 3 and 4. That’s a big difference. The Saints were a game away from being .500. How important was the trend regarding the Chargers? Not very important at all. Yes, the Saints had a losing record, but it wasn’t a terrible losing record.
But the trend regarding the Saints, 5 and 1 against the spread following an against the spread loss, was very important. Why? Because by beating the spread 5 times out of 6 after losing against the spread the previous week, NFL betting fans can be assured that the Saints’ coaching staff gets on this team to perform the week after screwing the pooch. This team may lose two or even three games in a row, but they won’t perform badly two to three weeks in a row. That means the Saints, when they’re underdogs, are dangerous after losing against the spread the week before. It doesn’t matter who is running the football for them. The Saints find a way to improve after a bad performance.
Let’s take a look at an over/under betting trend and assess its merits.
The Over is 5 and 1 against the spread in the Saints last 6 games following an against the spread loss.
This trend sort of mirrors the other trend regarding the Saints, right? Well, it should because it makes total sense. What happens when a good offensive team with a suspect defense loses? Their coaching staff looks for ways for them to score more. The Saints find ways to keep the ball in their hands, control the clock, and get touchdowns. Why? Because their coach and his coaching staff understand that the only way for them to win games is to score. The more you score, the better your chances of winning straight-up, and against the spread. This is particularly true when your defense is awful. Not only that but the Saints were facing a team in the San Diego Chargers that had scored more than 20 points in six out of their eight previous games. The Chargers had actually scored at least 24 points in five out of those previous eight games. Under these circumstances, the over was practically a foregone conclusion.
So, after assessing some of the betting trends, the NFL parlay bet is obvious: New Orleans + 3 to the Over 46 ½.
New Orleans did beat the spread by winning straight up in a slugfest. The Saints beat the Chargers by 5 points. What was the total? 69 points with the Saints winning 37 to 32.
By sticking to betting trends, and working on assessing their merits in terms of present realities, NFL betting fans won’t have a choice but to make profits.
