The NBA features a long, grueling regular season schedule; however, its 82 game slate allows basketball bettors numerous wagering opportunities. One can never be too careful when making NBA Picks, though. So many occasions to make money also present the prospect of losing it. With that in mind, here are few tried and true NBA handicapping methods to consider before heading to the proverbial betting window.
Watch out for over-valued teams:
Many times a hot team will draw prohibitive spreads, particularly against poor teams. Basketball is no different than other sports in that underdogs, no matter how bad they may be, have a tendency to show up for games when pitted against upper echelon competition. The Boston Celtics provide an example of such as their record over the last five seasons when playing as a -9.5 to -12 against the spread home favorite riding a five or more game winning streak is 10-3 straight up but 3-9-1 opposite the number.
There are a number of things to watch for in regard to teams playing back to back games, but one such scenario involves home favorites coming off a 20 or more point win. In recent NBA seasons, the last five to be exact, these teams are a paltry 15-25 (37.5 percent) against the spread. Getting on the other side of those clubs would have resulted in a nice profit.
Certain teams seem to have a spell over others and that spell, for whatever the reason, is often strong enough to overcome odds maker’s adjustments. The recent numbers between the San Antonio Spurs and Golden State Warriors offer a good example of this phenomenon. The Spurs have been the bane of the Warriors existence for a number of seasons, earning a 14-1 straight up and 9-4-2 against the spread record opposite Golden State. With a little research, match-ups like this one can be found and exploited.
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