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Bettors favor Florida over Alabama in route to BCS Championship Game

by Thomas Jensen on Friday, December 5th, 2008

Conference Championships, rivalry match-ups, BCS Championship Game considerations – Week 15 of the college football season is stacked with huge games.  We are one step away from Bowl season and this weekend’s results will have a big impact on how the bowl schedule shakes out.
 
That game that has the most bearing on the BCS bowl games is the SEC title game between the No. 1 ranked Alabama Crimson Tide and the No. 4 Florida Gators —the respective SEC West and East champs, with the books favoring the Gators by 10-points. The game will be played on neutral territory at the Georgia Dome. Dating back to 1996, the two teams have been even straight up, going 3-3, while the Gators have gone 2-4 ATS against Alabama, including four straight ATS losses in a row.
 
That said, the gators have not been a bankroll drain when favored by more than 8-points, as they boast a mark of 5-0 SU and a perfect 5-0 ATS the last five times they have been in this situation.
 
On the other side, Alabama has not been good at winning games when a dog of +8 or more, going 0-7 SU. However, they are a marginally profitable 4-3 ATS in that span, but it is worth highlighting that they have gone 4-0 ATS in the last four in this spot.  Sportsbook.com players are placing their chips on the Gators, as 64% of the betting action is coming in on Florida.
 
Another conference championship worth noting will feature the No. 20 Missouri Tigers taking on the No. 2 Oklahoma Sooners for the Big 12 title. Oklahoma is a steep 16.5-point favorite with the Total set at 79.5. Although the Big 12 title will be played at a neutral site—Arrowhead Stadium—the field is in the Tigers’ home state of Missouri and Mizzou.
 
The Sooners have the edge against the Tigers when it comes to Money line betting going 7-1 SU in the last eight games but 4-4 ATS in the same span of time. Oklahoma beat Missouri in the most recent match-up, cashing in as a 3-point road fave in a 38-17 win last year. Bettors are expecting the Sooners to cover again this year despite the big spread as 77% of the action is coming in on Oklahoma.
 
We really don’t like the fact that college coaches can interview for vacant jobs before the regular season concludes; as it can cause real disruption on teams in their bow games. Such a case is taking place in Southern California. According to an ESPN report, USC Trojans offensive coordinator Steve Sarkisian has interviewed for and has been hired as the new coach of the Washington Huskies (Sarkisian has denied the report – as they always do). USC has a game against cross town rival UCLA this weekend and while by no means does news like this mean the Trojans aren’t going to win vs. a bad UCLA team, it could impact their focus a little, which could impact covering the points.
 
The No. 5 Trojans are listed as big 32-point road favorites.
 
USC hasn’t done well at the Rose Bowl in the last 12 years, going 3-3 SU and 2-4 ATS.
 
However, in the last 18 games where USC has been favored in double-digits, it has gone 16-2 SU and 11-7 ATS and Sportsbook.com is seeing 79% of the action coming in on USC.
 
There is a lot on the line in the final weekend of the 2008 college regular season. Good luck with your plays. Stop by Sportsbook.com to check out the updated NCAA lines. Sign up today and enjoy the sign-up bonus, plus all your football wagers are half juice today.

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